Saxo Bank Publishes its Investment Outlook for Q1 2014

Copenhagen (ots/PRNewswire) -

Emerging Asia will become the world's primary weak spot in 2014,
but we have reached the beginning of the end of this crisis

Saxo Bank [http://www.saxobank.com/?noredirect=true ], the online
multi-asset trading and investment specialist, has published its
first quarterly insight for 2014 looking across both the
macroeconomic environment and individual asset classes.

Global overview

Having maintained world growth at acceptable levels throughout the
current crisis, emerging Asia will become the world's primary weak
spot in 2014. Investment in that region has reached a staggering 43%
of GDP while growth has fallen to barely 6%; the easy part of the
growth cycle is long gone, and some emerging market governments are
now proactively trying to slow their economies down. This is not
necessarily a bad thing for Asia, which needs to cool off and
reconsider its economic model; Europe, however, will be hit by the
fallout of the troubles facing its best growth market for exports.

Beyond emerging Asia, Saxo Bank expects the global economy to
accelerate from 2% growth in 2013 to 2.8% in 2014. This uptick will
be led by the US where private consumption and private investment
will prove key drivers, pushing growth close to 3%. Tapering will
continue as the economy strengthens, which would imply an exit from
QE in the second half of 2014.

The Eurozone is on the mend and likely to see growth move into
positive territory of 0.8% in 2014, but the outlook for Germany and
particularly France remains bleak, the latter having failed to spur
growth outside increases in public spending. The two year decline in
inflation across the Eurozone is unlikely to reverse meaningfully
this year and the argument for additional ECB easing is valid, most
likely through a new LTRO.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, comments: "It's been
a long time since the stars of macro indicators have aligned so
perfectly. The good news? This is the beginning of the end of this
crisis. The 2014-2015 period will see a transition away from
quantitative easing and easy money towards better quality growth and,
hopefully, a mandate for real change. The world has become so out of
balance that things can only improve from here."

Equities

Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy, underlines the continuing
importance of holding equities to see any meaningful capital growth.
The relative repricing between equities and bonds will continue in
2014 as total return in equities relative to bonds remains below the
equity risk premium line since 1995. He comments: "Don't pay any heed
to those who say equities are in a bubble. If you really want to make
the most of your portfolio in 2014, the biggest risk is not being
long enough on risky assets. "

Saxo Bank forecasts a 10 percent overall rise in global equities
over 2014. Its top equity picks for 2014 include General Electric,
Microsoft and BNP Paribas.

FX

The market is assuming that the Fed will adopt a slow and steady
approach to decreasing purchases, and as such the anticipated path is
towards a higher USD. However, if markets lose their nerve the USD
strength could shift more prominently against the less liquid G10 and
emerging-market currencies rather than the JPY and other majors.

John J. Hardy, Head of FX Strategy, adds: "Q1 will see a concerted
effort to wean the FX market off QE. The Eurozone could prove a
flashpoint, with the peripheral economies ready to rebel if the ECB
doesn't take stronger steps to expand its balance sheet."

Saxo Bank's top FX trading themes for Q1 2014 include long USDCAD,
long USDJPY and long GBPNZD.

Commodities

Another tough year lies ahead for commodities, with the risk of
even lower prices still a possibility. Demand growth has stabilised
as economic growth rates in emerging economies, not least China, have
declined.

The energy market will have to deal with the possibility of global
crude oil supply exceeding demand for the first time in recent
memory, thanks in part to the rise in non-OPEC production, and the
average price of Brent crude is likely to move lower towards USD
105/barrel. After 2013 saw gold's first annual loss in 13 years, Saxo
Bank is cautiously optimistic for its prospects later in 2014 after
averaging 1,225 USD/oz during the first quarter.

Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, adds: "Raised growth
expectations at the beginning of the year carry the risk that
investors will once again become too optimistic about the prospects
for higher prices, especially in crude oil and industrial metals.
Strong January performances over the past three years could therefore
be repeated only to be retracted later in the quarter."

Link to report

http://storage.saxobank.com/TradingFloor/TradingFloor_Insights_Q1_
2014.pdf

About Saxo Bank

Saxo Bank is a leading online trading [http://www.saxobank.com/fo
rex?csref=b1744_Link_boilerplate_pressrelease ] and investment
specialist. A fully licensed and regulated European bank, Saxo Bank
enables private investors and institutional clients to trade FX,
CFDs, ETFs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via three
specialised and fully integrated trading platforms; the browser-based
SaxoWebTrader [http://dk.saxobank.com/lp/webtraderdemo?csref=b1748_L
ink_boilerplate_pressrelease_danish ] , the downloadable SaxoTrader
[http://www.saxobank.com/demo-account?csref=b1746_Link_boilerplate_pr
essrelease ] and the SaxoMobileTrader
[http://www.saxobank.com/trading-platforms/saxomobiletrader ]
application available in over 20 languages. Saxo Bank also offers
professional portfolio and fund management through Saxo Asset
Management who accommodates high-net worth private clients and
institutional investors and provides banking services and advice to
retail clients through Saxo Privatbank. The Saxo Bank Group is
headquartered in Copenhagen with offices throughout Europe, Asia,
Middle East, Latin America and Australia.

ots Originaltext: Saxo Bank (Switzerland) SA
Im Internet recherchierbar: http://www.presseportal.de

Contact:
Media enquiries: Kasper Elbjørn, Head of Group Public Relations,
+45 3065 4300, press@saxobank.com