Global Warming Caused by CFCs, Not Carbon Dioxide, Study Says

Waterloo, Ontario (ots/PRNewswire) -

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are to blame for global warming since
the 1970s and not carbon dioxide, according to new research from the
University of Waterloo published in the International Journal of
Modern Physics B this week.

CFCs are already known to deplete ozone, but in-depth statistical
analysis now shows that CFCs are also the key driver in global
climate change, rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

"Conventional thinking says that the emission of human-made
non-CFC gases such as carbon dioxide has mainly contributed to global
warming. But we have observed data going back to the Industrial
Revolution that convincingly shows that conventional understanding is
wrong," said Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy,
biology and chemistry in Waterloo's Faculty of Science. "In fact, the
data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the
polar ozone hole and global warming."

"Most conventional theories expect that global temperatures will
continue to increase as CO2 levels continue to rise, as they have
done since 1850. What's striking is that since 2002, global
temperatures have actually declined - matching a decline in CFCs in
the atmosphere," Professor Lu said. "My calculations of CFC
greenhouse effect show that there was global warming by about 0.6
degree(s)C from 1950 to 2002, but the earth has actually cooled since
2002. The cooling trend is set to continue for the next 50-70 years
as the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere continues to decline."

The findings are based on in-depth statistical analyses of
observed data from 1850 up to the present time, Professor Lu's
cosmic-ray-driven electron-reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion
and his previous research into Antarctic ozone depletion and global
surface temperatures.

"It was generally accepted for more than two decades that the
Earth's ozone layer was depleted by the sun's ultraviolet
light-induced destruction of CFCs in the atmosphere," he said. "But
in contrast, CRE theory says cosmic rays - energy particles
originating in space - play the dominant role in breaking down
ozone-depleting molecules and then ozone."

Lu's theory has been confirmed by ongoing observations of cosmic
ray, CFC, ozone and stratospheric temperature data over several
11-year solar cycles. "CRE is the only theory that provides us with
an excellent reproduction of 11-year cyclic variations of both polar
ozone loss and stratospheric cooling," said Professor Lu. "After
removing the natural cosmic-ray effect, my new paper shows a
pronounced recovery by ~20% of the Antarctic ozone hole, consistent
with the decline of CFCs in the polar stratosphere."

By proving the link between CFCs, ozone depletion and temperature
changes in the Antarctic, Professor Lu was able to draw almost
perfect correlation between rising global surface temperatures and
CFCs in the atmosphere.

"The climate in the Antarctic stratosphere has been completely
controlled by CFCs and cosmic rays, with no CO2 impact. The change in
global surface temperature after the removal of the solar effect has
shown zero correlation with CO2 but a nearly perfect linear
correlation with CFCs - a correlation coefficient as high as 0.97."

Data recorded from 1850 to 1970, before any significant CFC
emissions, show that CO2 levels increased significantly as a result
of the Industrial Revolution, but the global temperature, excluding
the solar effect, kept nearly constant. The conventional warming
model of CO2, suggests the temperatures should have risen by
0.6degree(s)C over the same period, similar to the period of
1970-2002.

The analyses indicate the dominance of Lu's CRE theory and the
success of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone
Layer.

"We've known for some time that CFCs have a really damaging effect
on our atmosphere and we've taken measures to reduce their
emissions," Professor Lu said. "We now know that international
efforts such as the Montreal Protocol have also had a profound effect
on global warming but they must be placed on firmer scientific
ground."

"This study underlines the importance of understanding the basic
science underlying ozone depletion and global climate change," said
Terry McMahon, dean of the faculty of science. "This research is of
particular importance not only to the research community, but to
policy makers and the public alike as we look to the future of our
climate."

Professor Lu's paper, Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse
Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone
Depletion and Global Climate Change, also predicts that the global
sea level will continue to rise for some years as the hole in the
ozone recovers increasing ice melting in the polar regions.

"Only when the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates
over that of the polar ozone hole recovery, will both temperature and
polar ice melting drop concurrently," says Lu.

The peer-reviewed paper published this week not only provides new
fundamental understanding of the ozone hole and global climate change
but has superior predictive capabilities, compared with the
conventional sunlight-driven ozone-depleting and CO2-warming models.

Journal reference Cosmic-Ray-Driven Reaction and Greenhouse Effect
of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion
and Global Climate Change Qing-Bin Lu, University of Waterloo
Published on May 30 in International Journal of Modern Physics B Vol.
27 (2013) 1350073 (38 pages). The paper is available online at:
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0217979213500732

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Image with caption: "Annual Global Temperature over Land and Ocean
(CNW Group/University of Waterloo)". Image available at: http://photo
s.newswire.ca/images/download/20130530_C3585_PHOTO_EN_27298.jpg

Image with caption: "11-Year Cyclic Antarctic O3 Hole &
Stratospheric Cooling (CNW Group/University of Waterloo)". Image
available at: http://photos.newswire.ca/images/download/20130530_C358
5_PHOTO_EN_27299.jpg

SOURCE: University of Waterloo

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University of Waterloo
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