Atradius: World Trade Growth Positively Surprises in 2017

Amsterdam (ots/PRNewswire) -

- Better prospects, but risks remain to the downside for 2018

Global trade has experienced a broad upturn in 2017. Countries
with an open economy stand to profit the most from this. However,
this stimulus may not persist in 2018, argues Atradius in its
November Economic Outlook.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20150513/743985 )

World economic output has surprised to the upside through 2017,
supported by accommodative monetary policy, a modest energy price
recovery, as well as stronger-than-expected growth in China and the
eurozone. International trade especially has experienced a
stronger-than-expected expansion in 2017 - accelerating from 1.4%
y-o-y in 2016 to 3.8% as of September 2017. It has prompted upward
revisions of trade forecasts around the globe.

The strong performance of world trade through 2017 is in part due
to the recovering investment growth in major markets - especially the
US and China - boosting demand for imports. It can also be attributed
to a reduction in political uncertainty.

"The strong acceleration in trade growth through 2017 is a welcome
development that goes hand in hand with the stronger global economic
outlook," states Andreas Tesch, Atradius CMO. "Our data reflects the
importance of international trade. The majority of upward GDP
forecast revisions have been in more manufacturing-oriented,
export-intensive economies in Eastern Europe and Asia. In more
domestic-oriented economies, like those in Latin America,
developments were more stable."

Atradius forecasts world trade growth of 5% in 2017.
Forward-looking indicators point to a sustained expansion in 2018
but, with a higher base year, a deceleration to 3.5% is forecast.

"While we expect trade to continue to grow in 2018, we do not
expect the same upward revisions as we saw in 2017 "says Tesch.
"This is because the risks to global trade are still tilted to the
downside. The ongoing turn inward by Chinese policymakers will
continue to reduce demand in that market and weigh on intra-regional
trade. Political uncertainty is also not off the table as trade
disruptions from NAFTA and Brexit (re)negotiations could occur in
2018. US monetary tightening could also weigh on the outlook, making
external financing more expensive for export-oriented emerging
markets."

The Atradius Economic Outlook can be downloaded at
http://www.atradius.com

About Atradius

Atradius is a global provider of credit insurance, suretyships and
collection services, with a strategic presence in over 50 countries.
It has access to the credit history of over 240 million companies
worldwide. The credit insurance, bond and collection products offered
by Atradius protect companies around the world against the default
risks associated with selling goods and services on credit. Atradius
is a member of Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.MC), one of the largest
insurers in Spain and one of the largest credit insurers in the
world. You can find more information online at
http://www.atradius.com

ots Originaltext: Atradius N.V.
Im Internet recherchierbar: http://www.presseportal.de

Contact:
Atradius Corporate Communications
Christine Gerryn
Tel.: +31-20-553-2047
E-mail: christine.gerryn@atradius.com

Original-Content von: Atradius N.V., übermittelt durch news aktuell